When will the epidemic end in Guangzhou,China ?

The scale and duration of the COVID-19 outbreak depend on two important factors. First, the sooner the outbreak is discovered, the later it will be, the more difficult it will be to take measures, and the longer it will take to clear the epidemic. Secondly, the intensity of prevention and control measures. The greater the intensity of prevention and control measures, the shorter the time for zero clearance.  Thirtly , maintain good respiratory hygiene. When coughing or sneezing, cover your mouth and nose with tissues and towels. Wash your hands after coughing or sneezing and avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth with your hands. Wearing a mask ,protect yourself  and family well .

   The current epidenmic  in Guangzhou has lasted 21 days, this is a transmission caused by a mutated strain of the virus, with a short incubation period, high viral load and rapid transmission. According to the general rule of virus mutation, the virulence of a mutated strain decreases if its transmission rate increases. However, in this case, the proportion of asymptomatic infections is not high (8/131=6%), which may be due to the high viral load of the infected person, or indicates that the virulence of the mutated strain has not decreased significantly.

    It is officially announced this outbreak cases between the transmission chain more clearly, to illustrate the application of large data, epidemiological investigation of high precision, can clearly depict the ins and outs of this outbreak spread also suggests that the outbreak has not been popular, large-scale community because if large-scale community popular chain of transmission is often difficult to touch.

Personal protective

1. How to protect yourself from novel coronavirus pneumonia infection?

(1) wash hands frequently. Use soap or hand sanitizer and wash your hands with running water, and wipe your hands with disposable paper towels or a clean towel. Wash hands immediately after touching respiratory secretions (e.g. after sneezing).

(2) Maintain good respiratory hygiene habits.When coughing or sneezing, cover your mouth and nose with tissues and towels. Wash your hands after coughing or sneezing and avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth with your hands.

(3) Enhance physical fitness and immunity.Balanced diet, moderate exercise, regular work and rest to avoid excessive fatigue.

(4) keep the environment clean and ventilated.Open the window and ventilate at least 3 times a day, 20-30 minutes each time.When the outdoor air quality is poor, the frequency and time of ventilation should be appropriately reduced.

(5) minimize activities in crowded places and avoid contact with patients with respiratory tract infection.

(6) If the symptoms of respiratory infection such as cough, runny nose, fever, etc., should be isolated at home and rest, and if the fever persists or the symptoms worsen, seek medical advice as soon as possible.  

      How to use the mask: The dark side of the mask should be the front side, the front side should be facing outwards, the light side of the medical mask should be facing the face, the part with the metal strip of the nose clip should be on the top of the mask, and be careful not to wear it upside down. After distinguishing the front, back, upper and lower ends of the mask, wash your hands and hang the ropes on your ears. After wearing the mask, use both hands to press the metal strips on both sides of the nose bridge so that the upper end of the mask is close to the nose bridge. Then stretch the mask downward so that the mask does not have any wrinkles, preferably covering the nose and mouth.